The most important recent developments in North Africa are:
1. Sudan’s war may be heading toward a de‑facto partition. A U.S.‑backed cease‑fire proposal is being criticised for risking a Libya‑style split between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and a senior U.S. envoy has said that neither SAF leader Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan nor RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) should play any future political role. This matters because a partition would cement the current front lines, make a national peace settlement far harder, and could destabilise neighboring countries, especially Libya and Chad.
2. Morocco’s post‑election political and economic shift. Following recent parliamentary elections, Morocco is focusing on expanding its energy and strategic mineral sectors to boost security and support its green‑transition goals, as highlighted in a conversation with Minister Amina Benkhadra. Analyses of Morocco’s social mobility also note the political fragmentation after the election (the PAM winning only 10 seats). These dynamics matter because they affect Morocco’s economic resilience, its role as a regional energy hub, and its ability to attract foreign investment amid growing geopolitical competition.
3. Intensifying competition for critical minerals in North Africa. The outlook notes that Africa’s critical‑minerals race is accelerating as the United States and China vie for supply‑chain control. Morocco’s push into strategic resources and broader regional mining developments (e.g., Egypt’s gold sector) are part of this trend. Securing these minerals is crucial for global clean‑energy technologies and gives North African states leverage in global geopolitics.
Why these matters matter:
- A Sudanese partition could create new frozen conflicts, trigger refugee flows, and reshape power balances in the Sahel and Horn of Africa.
- Morocco’s energy‑minerals strategy positions it as a key player in the global green‑transition, influencing investment flows and regional stability.
- The US‑China minerals competition makes North Africa a strategic front in the larger great‑power rivalry, affecting foreign aid, security assistance, and trade policies.
What to watch next:
- Sudan: Negotiations on the U.S. cease‑fire plan, any formal acceptance of a partition framework, and reactions from regional bodies (AU, IGAD) and Russia/China.
- Morocco: Implementation of energy‑minerals projects, policy reforms to attract foreign capital, and the impact of the fragmented parliament on governance.
- Critical minerals: New mining contracts or concessions awarded to U.S. or Chinese firms, export‑policy changes, and any joint‑venture initiatives among North African states to create regional processing hubs. [[1]]