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Key developments: A tentative “energy ceasefire” announced by President Trump failed to curb hostilities, with Russia striking Ukrainian power and gas sites and Kyiv continuing attacks on Russian refineries. This breakdown pushed Brent crude up 2% to $106.80 a barrel and U.S. WTI to $93.70, even as diesel prices slipped modestly after the brief diesel‑export announcement.
Why it matters: The resurgence of attacks revives supply‑risk premiums, keeping diesel prices near wartime levels—about 75% above pre‑war U.S. levels and 95% above European pre‑war levels. Analysts note that any diesel influx from Russia would be limited and could be eroded by continued strikes, underscoring the fragile link between geopolitics and fuel costs.
What to watch next: Monitor the intensity of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and Kyiv’s response, as further escalation could push oil and diesel higher. Watch for any policy shifts from the Trump administration, especially threats to curtail Ukraine’s weapons procurement, which could alter the cease‑fire dynamics and impact global fuel markets. [[1]]