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Key developments: Recent shipping data show a rebound in oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with carriers reporting higher volumes despite lingering doubts about Iran’s transit rules. At the same time, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co has instructed customers to start loading crude again from its Das and Zirku island terminals, signaling confidence that the main Gulf export routes remain open. The market is also reacting to broader geopolitical shifts – Brent crude is projected to fall about 8% for the week after a cease‑fire between Israel and Hezbollah, though Iran’s stance on Hormuz usage keeps a risk premium in play.
Why it matters: The Hormuz corridor handles roughly a third of global oil exports; a revival in shipments helps ease the supply‑tightness that has been pushing prices higher since the Iran‑related conflict began. UAE’s move to reactivate its island loading points underlines that major exporters expect the waterway to stay functional, which should support price stability. However, the anticipated 8% weekly Brent decline shows that market participants remain cautious, weighing cease‑fire optimism against Iran’s conditional approach to the strait.
What to watch next: • Any official Iranian clarification on transit terms for oil vessels – a shift could either accelerate the flow or trigger another price spike. • Updates from the EU Commission on the 2027 ban of Russian LNG trade, which could reshape global energy supply dynamics. • Australia's fuel‑excise relief extension and other regional policy moves that may affect demand patterns. • Further developments in the Middle‑East cease‑fire and any new security incidents in the Strait that could disrupt the renewed shipping momentum. [[1]]