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Key developments: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s next comprehensive assessment (AR7) was slated for release in 2028 ahead of the UN climate summit Cop33. However, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, India and China is lobbying to postpone the publication until 2029. This move has sparked sharp opposition from 34 countries in the High Ambition Coalition, the EU and Least‑Developed Countries, who argue that delaying the science jeopardises vulnerable nations.
Why it matters: AR7 is expected to deliver a stark, more urgent warning than previous assessments, underscoring rising temperatures, extreme weather and accelerating greenhouse‑gas emissions. The report feeds directly into the global stocktake at Cop33, a critical checkpoint for the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target. A delay could blunt political pressure on governments to ramp up emissions cuts, undermining the “ratchet” mechanism that drives progressive ambition.
What to watch next: – Negotiations within the IPCC and UN climate bodies over the report’s timeline.
– Statements from vulnerable nations, such as Marshall Islands minister Jess Gasper’s warning that “we cannot allow political interests to determine which science the world is willing to hear.”
– Potential diplomatic pushes by the High Ambition Coalition to force an expedited release.
– Any shifts in the agenda of Cop33 that might compensate for a postponed AR7, such as stronger interim commitments or alternative scientific briefings. [[1, 2]]