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Key developments: The IPCC’s next major assessment, AR7, was slated for 2028 ahead of the UN Cop33 summit, but a coalition led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, India and China is pushing to postpone it until 2029. Vulnerable nations, organized in the High Ambition Coalition, the EU and Least‑Developed Countries, have publicly urged an expedited release, warning that delays would endanger the poorest and most climate‑exposed peoples. A Marshall Islands minister warned that "we cannot allow political interests to determine which science the world is willing to hear."
Why it matters: The AR7 report is expected to deliver an even stronger alarm than the previous assessments, highlighting rising temperatures, heatwaves, floods and droughts. Its timing is crucial for the global stocktake at Cop33, which checks whether nations are on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C limit. A postponed report could weaken the accountability mechanism, giving polluting nations more leeway and increasing the risk of overshooting climate targets.
What to watch next: Follow negotiations among the High Ambition Coalition and the opposing petro‑state bloc in the weeks leading up to Cop33; monitor any official IPCC statements on the release schedule; and watch for reactions from the UN climate conference in Antalya regarding how a delayed AR7 might affect national climate pledges and financing commitments. [[1, 2]]