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Key developments: Researchers using ICEYE satellite data and a refined model of the glacier’s grounding zone have found that warm ocean water is eroding the base of the Thwaites Glacier faster than previously believed. The study predicts the glacier could contribute up to 1.2 inches (30 mm) of sea‑level rise by 2100, roughly twice earlier estimates, and raises the probability of a full grounding‑zone detachment to 60 % by century’s end.
Why it matters: A complete collapse of Thwaites would lift global sea levels by about 26 inches (65 cm), threatening coastal communities worldwide. The accelerated melting undermines earlier projections and signals a more immediate risk of rapid ice loss from West Antarctica, a region that holds enough ice to raise sea levels by several meters over longer timescales.
What to watch next: Scientists will monitor the evolving grounding‑zone dynamics, especially the stability of the Mouginot Ridge, via satellite and ocean‑temperature observations. Future research will focus on how the retreat could trigger further destabilisation of adjacent ice shelves and the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet, informing updated sea‑level rise forecasts and adaptation planning. [[1]]