Key developments The labor market showed little momentum in September, with employers adding only 29,000 jobs and the unemployment rate nudging up to 4.2%, far below the 90,000 jobs analysts had forecast. At the same time, the federal…
Continue reading Weak Job Gains, Surging Deficit and Stubborn Inflation Heighten U.S. Recession RisksKey developments: September job creation stalled at just 29,000, well below expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. At the same time, the federal budget deficit ballooned to nearly $2 trillion for fiscal 2026, a 12% jump in…
Continue reading Weak Job Growth, Rising Deficit and Inflation Stoke Recession FearsKey developments: A recent Wall Street Journal poll shows economists now see only a 24% chance of a recession in the next year, down from higher levels earlier in the year. At the same time, the labor market…
Continue reading US Recession Odds Slip to 24% as September Job Gains StallKey developments: A recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists shows the average market view of a recession in the next year falling to just 24%, down from higher levels in previous weeks. At the same time, Bloomberg…
Continue reading Recession Odds Ease to 24% as Distressed Corporate Loans SurgeKey developments: A recent Wall Street Journal poll of economists shows the average probability of a recession in the next 12 months fell to 24%, down from higher levels in previous weeks. Why it matters: A lower recession…
Continue reading Recession Odds Slip to 24% as Economists See Lower RiskKey developments: A recent Wall Street Journal poll of economists shows the average chance of a recession in the next year has slipped to 24 percent, down from higher levels in previous weeks. This decline reflects easing concerns…
Continue reading Recession Odds Fall to 24% Amid Mixed Economic SignalsKey developments: 30‑year Treasury yields surged to 5.06%, the highest level since 2007, while the federal debt‑to‑deficit picture worsens with $39.5 trillion in debt and a $1.37 trillion annual shortfall, squeezing private capital. The labor market stalled, adding only 29,000…
Continue reading Treasury Yields Surge and Job Slump Amplify Recession RisksKey developments: The 30‑year Treasury yield jumped to 5.06%—its highest level since 2007 and more than twice the rate seen in early 2022—while the 10‑year note pushed past 5.3%, a peak not reached since 2002. At the same…
Continue reading Treasury Yields Surge and Job Gains Stagnate, Raising Recession Risks
