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Key developments: A new UCL‑led analysis published in BMJ Mental Health shows that five major national events – the Brexit referendum, the first Covid‑19 lockdown, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the 2022 mini‑budget and the ongoing pandemic – each triggered immediate spikes in psychological distress across the United Kingdom. The first lockdown alone added an estimated 900,000 extra people needing GP help for depression, while the Brexit vote contributed a comparable rise of about 120,000. Since 2016, contact with NHS mental‑health services has almost doubled, reaching 4.13 million in 2024‑25, and monthly new referrals surged 47% to 530,000 by July 2026.
Why it matters: The findings quantify how political and economic turbulence translates into population‑wide mental‑health crises, highlighting a sustained upward trend that has not receded even after the events passed. The surge in service demand strains already stretched NHS resources and underscores the urgency of the forthcoming government‑commissioned inquiry into rising diagnoses of mental illness, ADHD and autism, which could shape future policy and funding priorities.
What to watch next: The publication of Prof Peter Fonagy’s inquiry report later this month, which will examine the drivers behind the surge in diagnoses and recommend systemic reforms. Follow‑up studies will likely assess whether the increased NHS referrals lead to improved outcomes or further highlight service gaps, and policymakers may propose targeted mental‑health support linked to major socio‑economic shocks. [[1]]