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Key developments: On Oct 12 2026 lithium prices in China dropped to 115,400 CNY/tonne, a 5.7% daily fall and a 16.8% decline over the past month, though they remain 57.9% above a year earlier. The dip follows a fresh low‑year‑to‑date level of below CNY 123,000/tonne after revised Chinese stockpiles painted a more comfortable supply picture. Major supply‑side moves include the restart of Mineral Resources’ Bald Hill mine and Core Lithium’s Finniss project, while CATL’s Jianxiawo mine remains offline due to revoked environmental permits.
Why it matters: The price slide reflects a rapidly widening supply gap. New Australian mine restarts and a surge in Argentine production—Rio Tinto expects to double its output by 2028 and Eramet is adding 11,000 t LCE per year in Argentina—are adding tens of thousands of tonnes to global availability. Coupled with the Global Lithium Compound Market’s projected growth to $39.7 billion by 2034 (CAGR 16.8%), the market is shifting from a shortage to a surplus, pressuring spot prices.
What to watch next: Analysts note that prices could stay below $2,000 / t for the near term, making projects appear cheap for investors (Bairstow’s comment). Watch for further inventory revisions in China, the timeline for Rio Tinto’s Rincón startup in 2028, and any policy changes on Chinese refining capacity or environmental approvals that could tighten supply again. [[1, 2, 3, 4]]