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Key developments: A health‑department analysis released under FOI laws projects that about 78,000 Australians aged 65 + will abandon private health insurance by the end of the decade, double the 44,000 figure the government has cited. The forecast shows 44,000 dropping out in 2028‑29, rising to a cumulative 78,000 the year after.
Why it matters: The loss of private cover among seniors—many on low incomes—could strain the public Medicare system and increase out‑of‑pocket costs for a vulnerable cohort. It also fuels political controversy, with the Greens publicly stating they will not support the proposed changes.
What to watch next: Government responses on how to make the private‑insurance rebates “fairer,” potential policy tweaks to curb the drop‑off, and parliamentary debate where the Greens may block the legislation if no amendments are made. [[1]]