\n\n
Developments: After President Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, Russia resumed strikes on Ukrainian power and gas facilities while Kyiv continued attacks on Russian refineries, pushing Brent up 2% to $106.80 and WTI to $93.70 per barrel. Diesel markets saw a modest 3% dip in US wholesale prices to $4.75 a gallon, but overall diesel remains far above pre‑war levels—US diesel about 75% and European diesel about 95% higher.
Why it matters: The renewed hostilities undermine the brief price‑relief hope tied to the ceasefire and highlight geopolitical strain. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid warned that “the overnight strikes make the ceasefire increasingly uncertain and highlight strains between Washington and Kyiv,” indicating that any Russian diesel release may have limited impact on price containment. Moreover, the Trump administration’s threat to halt Ukraine’s weapons procurement intensifies the risk of further energy‑infrastructure attacks, sustaining higher oil and diesel costs.
What to watch next: 1) Whether Russia escalates further strikes on Ukrainian energy assets, which could tighten supply and push prices higher. 2) The pace and volume of Russian diesel exports, as analysts note the current scale is too small to shift global markets. 3) U.S. policy moves, especially any action to restrict Ukraine’s weapons procurement, which could affect the conflict’s intensity and, consequently, energy prices. [[1]]