Key developments: A recent Wall Street Journal poll of economists shows the average probability of a recession in the next 12 months fell to 24%, down from higher levels in previous weeks. Why it matters: A lower recession…
Continue reading Recession Odds Slip to 24% as Economists See Lower RiskThe International Monetary Fund has increased its projection for world‑wide GDP expansion in 2026 to 3.1%, up from the 3.0% estimate in July and slightly below the 3.5% pace recorded last year. The upgrade reflects a “demand impulse”…
Continue reading IMF lifts 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% as AI boom cushions war‑driven energy shocksKey developments: The International Monetary Fund has revised its forecast for 2026 global GDP growth upward to 3.1%, up from a 3.0% estimate in July and still above the 3.5% growth seen last year. The upgrade reflects a…
Continue reading IMF lifts 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% as AI investment offsets energy‑price shocksThe International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for world‑wide economic expansion in 2026 to 3.1%, a modest upgrade from the 3% projection made in July. The boost comes largely from a surge in artificial‑intelligence‑related investment, which the…
Continue reading IMF lifts 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% as AI investment offsets energy‑price shocksKey developments: The International Monetary Fund released its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, lifting its global growth estimate to 3.1% for this year—up from a July projection of 3.0%—and forecasting 3.4% growth in 2027. The upgrade reflects a…
Continue reading IMF Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% Amid Rising Geopolitical and Debt RisksKey developments: The IMF highlighted that a prolonged war in the Middle East, along with possible disruptions to energy production, shipping routes, or critical infrastructure, represents the biggest risk to both regional and global economies. Its regional outlook…
Continue reading IMF Warns Prolonged Middle‑East Conflict and Energy Turmoil Threaten Global GrowthKey developments: – The IMF identifies the ongoing war in the Middle East and possible disruptions to energy supply, shipping routes, and critical infrastructure as the biggest risk to both regional and global economies. – In its October…
Continue reading IMF Warns Prolonged Middle‑East Conflict and Energy Turmoil Threaten Global GrowthKey developments: Federal Reserve policymakers, led by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, say the central bank will probably need to raise short‑term rates again to curb inflation, but they do not view an October 27‑28 move as urgent. Recent…
Continue reading Fed officials see more rate hikes likely as inflation stays highKey developments: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank will probably need to raise rates further to curb inflation, yet she ruled out an urgent move at the Oct. 27‑28 meeting. Meanwhile, September CPI jumped…
Continue reading Fed likely to keep tightening as September CPI spikes, but October hike still uncertainKey developments: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed will probably need to raise short‑term rates again to tame inflation, but she ruled out an urgent decision at the Oct 27‑28 meeting, reflecting a “wait‑and‑see” stance. Meanwhile, September…
Continue reading Fed Officials Signal Likely Rate Hikes but No Immediate Move in October
